January 2006: A Macro View
Before we get into the business of predicting what might happen in technology-related areas in 2006, I wanted to step back and note six macro-level factors that, if they break in a certain way, will make discussions about Google vs. Microsoft, cable vs. DSL, Intel vs. AMD, or Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD utterly irrelevant. The other factor here is timing: it's impossible to know when a hurricane, epidemic, or political uprising might hit, so these kinds of long-wave changes don't fit neatly into a chronological prediction. Nevertheless, all of them have the potential to rearrange the landscape of hundreds of millions of individuals.
Of the six macro trend areas, three are political, two are natural, and one straddles the line between the two.
-Two natural areas of potential disruption-
Regardless of one's interpretations of various claims as to causation and severity, evidence for the existence of what's called "global warming" mounts yearly. Foreseeing the consequences is another matter. How much will coastlines be altered by rising water levels caused by melting polar ice? What will be the political and economic consequences of newly exposed mineral resources in the Arctic? Normally peaceful nations, including Canada and Denmark, are contesting several previously ice-bound islands and surrounding areas that could include such attractive resources as diamonds and oil; the former country recently staged military exercises in the region to bolster its presence.
Much was learned in the twentieth century about the interconnectedness of ecosystems, but the scale of those connections seems to be increasing as knowledge expands. Researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute have hypothesized dramatic shifts in what they call the Atlantic Conveyor: a loop that begins with warm water flowing north along the eastern U.S. coastline, powered by equatorial warmth and related energy. After warming the Canadian Maritimes, the water flows toward Europe, then south toward the equator. During this stage, the cold, fresher water falls because it's heavier, further helping fuel currents.
Shifting the balance of fresh versus salt water at different places in the loop generates climate change, which changes what foods will grow where and how much heat is needed for the resident populations. (Migration patterns of butterflies, for example, are being found to be much more dynamic than previously thought as they discover newly hospitable habitats.) In the extreme case, currents could actually flip directions, as they have in the distant past. The climatic consequences of the Gulf stream's moving only slightly, or cooling by a few degrees -- as a result of melting ice caps -- involve not only hotter summers or fewer hard frosts in the winter (and a probable rise in mosquito-borne disease) but also, paradoxically, colder temperatures in parts of North America and/or Europe. And nobody knows yet if there's a connection between global warming and all those hurricanes.
2) Avian flu
Nature is at base a system of checks and balances: growth and decay, life and death, order and disorder all exist in dynamic tension. As some forms of disease like bacterial infection or smallpox come under attack from improved hygiene, medications, or new social practices, new ones emerge. (It was fascinating to hear President Bush supporting Intelligent Design in the same week he authorized a relatively aggressive government response to a disease that doesn't exist yet but will if a virus mutates in a certain way.)
No current adults in leadership positions have ever seen a pandemic. The last one was in 1918, and had the nasty trait of attacking people with the strongest immune systems in what is called a cytokine storm: People's faces turned purple and they coughed blood as their lungs were destroyed in 24 to 36 hours. Losing thousands or tens of thousands of prime-of-life adults would have unforeseeable psychological and economic effects this time around.
Here's a back-of-the-envelope estimate of how bad an H5N1 pandemic could be, courtesy of public-health expert Dr. Larry Brilliant via the Strategic News Service:
******
First, assume that over the three-year period that pandemics usually run their course, one-third of humanity contracted the disease (about the same proportion as the 1918 flu and the same order of magnitude as other flu pandemics). Then, assume that the death rate from H5N1 drops from the currently reported 50% human fatality rate (it is almost 100% fatal in chickens) reported today.
Assume that as a result of both better surveillance (so that we find more mild cases, reducing the denominator of the case fatality rate, which is number of deaths divided by number of cases) and the virus becoming less virulent over time - as do most viruses as they pass through the human population - the case fatality rate drops by nine-tenths. That would reduce the case fatality from H5N1 to 5%. Even then, we face a disaster of unimaginable proportions: if 33% of the 6.5 billion people in the world get infected, and 5% of them die, we are looking at over 100 million deaths from the disease.
******
The economic consequences would be a massive extrapolation from what we saw with SARS, which caused 44 deaths in Canada but paralyzed the economy: imagine the world's airlines being grounded, for example. Slowdowns in just-in-time logistics will quickly shut down manufacturing lines that lack inventory buffers. Public places like office buildings, arenas, and train stations will empty out. People are already hoarding vaccines, but even anti-viral hand wipes could become coveted items. The picture gets worse from there, if (and it's a huge if) H5N1 mutates to spread by human-to-human contact.
-One area of natural and political overlap-
3) Unstable energy prices
The reasons for oil's being dramatically more expensive are of course many and varied; they're also sometimes secret. Even visible records are suspect: Shell downgraded its published statement of proven oil and gas reserves five times in a twelve-month period. The lack of transparency into the operations of key producers (OPEC nations), key decision-makers (Vice President Cheney), and major markets (China) means that tracing cause to effect will be effectively impossible, particularly when catastrophic events (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes) disrupt matters further.
The Iraq war is of course a major factor in this instability; so is Israel's current political situation. China's surge in urbanization and manufacturing capacity is spurring demand, while, in the near term, supply is unlikely to grow from either new discoveries of current fuels or commercialization of new fuels. One exception may be biofuels: Brazil's calorie-rich sugar cane converts to ethanol costing about a third of what American grain-based ethanol does. Biodiesel, made from used fryer grease and similar byproducts, can also be made from soybeans, another major crop in Brazil.
But the rise of alternative fuels will not reduce oil's primacy any time soon, and the imbalance between growth in consumption, speed of depletion, and available reserves looks like it will widen before it can stabilize. Add a climate shift (what if London used as much heating fuel per capita as Stockholm?), a political disruption in supply or distribution (whether from terrorists, taxing authorities, or regime change), or a natural disaster, and oil prices could shock the global economy since virtually every product and service folds energy into the final price.
-Three long-wave political shifts-
4) The end of the bi-polar world
From the 18th century through most of the twentieth, prosperous nations organized competing networks of far-away, less developed territories. France had possessions everywhere from Louisiana to Algeria to Vietnam, England's empire truly spanned the globe, and more recently the U.S. used economic, military, and cultural incentives to maintain if not an empire at least a sphere of influence from Korea, Japan, and Taiwan to Canada to NATO.
Now, World War II fades into the past and less frequently dominates policy debates. Differentials in birth rates create population imbalance between religions and regions. Communications simultaneously reinforces local cultures and connects disparate peoples into a global cultural fabric. For these and other reasons, the model of the big countries shaping smaller and poorer countries' destinies is falling from favor. Arms deals can be had from the U.S., France - and China, with the wild card of the former Soviet states selling off armaments for hard currency, no questions asked. Intellectual capital comes less exclusively from the Harvard-Sorbonne-Oxbridge axis given that China, India, and the former Soviet states are both home-growing and temporarily exporting hundreds of thousands of motivated and talented students.
For many years, conventional wisdom held that the U.S.-USSR two-camp world, albeit with fatefully high stakes for live conflict, kept smaller "rogue" states in line. The two superpowers held many interests in common, and countries like Libya and North Korea, as well as non-state actors, were held in check. Now, what some call the "unipolar" world, with the U.S. as the sole superpower, works differently. Europe is attempting to organize itself as a countervailing force via the EU, Japan is moving out of its post-WW II stance, and the "nuclear club" includes many relatively minor countries who now carry potentially big sticks. China, meanwhile, is modernizing in its distinctively Chinese way, becoming the world's factory, extending some freedoms while curtailing others, and reinventing itself at an unprecedented scale as millions of people relocate every year.
There's no consensus understanding of the current world. Tom Barnett's "core and gap" view probably has few fans in Europe and fewer in Riyadh. The Bush administration's stance of unipolarity, which both permits and necessitates unilaterality, has been fought both within American politics and in Europe, never mind in the eastern hemisphere. The simultaneous attack on and retreat from modernity, meanwhile, joins religious fundamentalists from many faiths in focusing on common or similar enemies, even as they differ in their chosen path forward. Indeed, the single most important geopolitical result of the fall of the Berlin wall may be the resurgence in the number and power of non-state actors (such as clerics, media personalities from Berlusconi to Murdoch to Ailes, and non-governmental organizations like the Gates Foundation and Greenpeace). Whatever their power, however, none of the emerging entities can either countervail U.S. dominance or hold a cadre of nation-states in loose alignment. The result is the instability that we see today and a war fought not against a geopolitical entity but a mode of political conflict.
5) Decreased faith in government and authority
The lack of faith in political institutions extends far beyond a simple dislike or disapproval of a given politician's performance. Across the globe, politics as an exercise is being viewed with less trust and confidence than at any time in recent memory. George Bush's approval rating, ever since New Orleans, has been less than 50%, a stunning reversal for the apparently decisive winner of the 2004 election who at the time claimed a mandate. Even the process by which that election was conducted, relying as it did on electronic voting machines that lacked audit trails and hard copy but featured visibly insecure code, is now widely distrusted.
Italy's Silvio Berlusconi has used his media holdings and government powers to reinforce his position (in part by clamping down on publications that satirize and criticize his alleged law-breaking), but even with a hand-tailored legal code, a facellift, and a hair transplant, Berlusconi trails his opponent in the upcoming April election.
Germany's Angela Merkel was hardly swept into office on a wave of confidence and good feeling. After confusing gross and net income twice in a single debate and later allegedly plagiarizing a Ronald Reagan speech, her party limped into a first-place finish in the election for Chancellor. After two months, her party (the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, at 35.2% of the vote) and its strongest challenger (the Social Democrats, with 34.2%) agreed to a coalition government.
Even England's Tony Blair, seemingly invulnerable to Tory opposition, lost his first House of Commons vote in November. Much like George Bush in the U.S., Blair faces public disapproval but has no credible political opponent to contend with. History's grade on his handling of the Iraq war is still incomplete, to say the least, but right now voters seem ambivalent: when asked when he should act on his promise to voluntarily leave government in the next several years, only 25% of respondents hoped he would change his mind and stay on past the next General Election.
In all four of the above-mentioned countries, public dissatisfaction derives in part from a lack of confidence as old slogans and solutions fail to address current reality. Economic uncertainty builds as jobs and wages are being reoriented away from high-paying, often unionized, positions toward part-time or otherwise lower-paying work. An increasing number of jobs (and types of jobs) are being moved to lower-wage nations, whether Mexico, Poland, India, or China.
6) Increasing signs of class conflict
Under the Bush presidency, the gap between rich and poor has dramatically widened. The notion of a broad-based middle class, serving as a buffer between the extremes and as a target for the striving poor, can no longer be assumed. Even mainstream economists like Mark Zandi at Economy.com contend that the middle class is splitting, unevenly, into those who are doing well and those who, largely because of globalization, are struggling.
According to venture capitalist Steven Rattner writing in Business Week (8 August 2005),
"Every serious study shows that the U.S. income gap has become a chasm. Over the past 30 years, the share of income going to the highest-earning Americans has risen steadily to levels not seen since shortly before the Great Depression.
JUST HOW DRAMATIC A SHIFT over the past three decades? Economists Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez calculated (using data from the Internal Revenue Service, hardly a hotbed of partisanship) that the share of income going to the top 1% of households nearly doubled, to 14.7% in 2002, up from a low of 7.7% in the early 1970s. By comparison, the income share for the top 1% peaked at 19.6% in 1928 before beginning its long slide. What is particularly alarming is that at every step up the ladder, the disparity has progressively widened. Over the past 30 years, the share of income garnered by the top 10% of Americans has grown by about a third; the share of the top 0.01% -- the 13,000 or so households with an average income of $10.8 million in 2002 -- has multiplied nearly four times."
Turning her focus away from the rich, Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren analyzes the rise in middle-class wages from a different perspective: risk. Given that both spouses in a two-parent family are often working full-time to meet recurring, fixed expenses like day care, insurance premiums, mortgage, and taxes, (and not discretionary items like food, travel, and clothing that can be adjusted), there's no slack in the budget for time taken off to care for sick kids or recuperating elders. Nor can the spouse working in the home serve as a backup wage-earner in the case of layoff or disability involving the main wage-earner. The notion of safety nets has fallen from the center of public attention of late, but the fact remains that there are complex moral, political, and economic questions about caring for our fellow citizens that are not going away.
The Katrina disaster linked several of these themes into a complex tragedy. Decisions to evacuate and/or shut down oil wells and pipelines were made in close conjunction with energy companies. Racial tension has been a facet of New Orleans life for well over a century as French treatment of blacks (and intermarriage) starkly differed from Confederate and then Reconstruction attitudes and policies. Class tension, meanwhile, followed the pattern of many tourist-driven economies: to cite but one example, the status, and stature, of the poorly-paid police department remains fragile even now. When natural disaster hit and was compounded by the consequences of bad human decisions made over decades, the decay of civil order was frightening and remains poorly understood.
Nor is class redefinition and its resulting tensions solely a North American issue. The riots in France last year sprang from complex sources, but religious affiliation, economics, and government's mild response to astounding unemployment figures were part of the mix. Similar tensions are less volatile but equally present across Europe, where immigration policies are being hotly debated and often redrafted. The class component of much of the violence in the Arab world is also impossible to ignore as differences in education, social mobility, and personal prospects (as in arranged marriages, for example) mix with religious intolerance across much of Africa and through Asia.
If a rising tide was formerly said (reportedly by everyone from Herbert Hoover to John F. Kennedy) to lift all boats, what happens when there are areas of the bay where the less fortunate stay stuck in the mud while they can see better-off brethren differentially profit from war, globalization, oil shortages, and other burdens widely shared? As we contemplate what 2006 will bring, seeing the magnitude and complexity of these kinds of long-term developments that could become either urgent or inexorable forces in our lives can be a useful, if perhaps overly sobering, exercise.
For further information:
http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewArticle.do?id=7115
http://companionship.typepad.com/critt/2006/01/brilliant_pande.html
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20050812/avian_flu.pdf
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20051011/dont_fear_fear.pdf
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/pnm/index.htm
http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/05_32/b3946130.htm?chan=gl
http://privatizationofrisk.ssrc.org/Warren/pf/
--Dr. John Jordan
Founder, Still River Research and executive director of the eBusiness Research Center at Penn State University
Posted by John Jordan at January 18, 2006 05:48 PM
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